Modern Manifest Destiny or Geographic Devolution?

Anyone who has access to any news service should be aware of the recent clashes in Tibet. At the same time, Taiwan is preparing for a presidential election on March 22. There have also been reports lately of Xinjiang separatists resorting to acts of terror on airplanes in China. Many of these events are coming to a head just prior to the time in which the PRC government prepares to welcome the world to Beijing for the 2008 Olympic Games. On these issues, I am of two minds. On one side, my respect of the Han Chinese civilization and culture makes me quick to rush to their defense in these circumstances. The government of the PRC is attempting to hold a country of many nations and cultures together. This I can understand and accept. The means by which they attempt to do so I refuse to agree with, and borders on white Caucasian techniques of maintaining dominance over the Native Americans. In light of recent events, there are many important questions that need to be asked. Is the forceful nationalism represented by public opinion of the Han ethnic group combined with the heavy-handed techniques of control by the PRC government a sign of a modern Chinese equivalent of Manifest Destiny, and if so, should the international community move to stop it? Also, are the actions of separatists in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang symbols of geographic devolution in China, similar to what occurred at the collapse of the USSR?

The Han ethnic group is estimated to make up 90% of the population of mainland China. That would be approximately 1.26 billion people.

While I have personal reason to dispute the accuracy of this number (I believe that many people don't truly know their ethnicity and have been grouped with the Han majority because of the convenience assimilation afforded their ancestors generations ago), the fact remains that it is a huge majority. The Han ancestry is the one credit is given for most of what is considered "Chinese" today. The Han (and all people who consider themselves Chinese), have been raised as a proud people, superior both technologically and socially to surrounding civilizations. The great losses during the Opium Wars and World War II losses to Japan provided harsh awakenings. After Hong Kong and Macau were lost, many people were compelled to humility. After the collapse of the Qing dynasty, the provisional governments and later KMT leadership were seen to be pandering to Western powers. This angered the Chinese populace, and was one of the battle cries during the Chinese Civil War used by the Communist party. This was by no means incorrect, indeed the KMT had gone too far for a time in acquiescing to foreign control. The resulting Communist leadership worked hard to reverse the effects of this, with China re-entering a stage of isolationism and expansion under Mao Zedong. Repeatedly frustrated in his attempts to gain Taiwan from KMT control, Mao looked to the West, spreading and enforcing control in the sparsely populated and relatively demilitarized regions of Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. The claim that these places had always been part of China was weak at best, but that is what Mao told the Chinese people. He also claimed that the PRC was liberating these areas of "petty capitalist" and "foreign" influences. This helped foster a sense of moral supremacy in the Han ethnic majority, especially the peasantry, which had only just been freed from what could arguably be termed a "feudal" society. The reality, of course, was quite different, with the harshest realities displayed in the heavily Buddhist Tibet. Land was controlled by the clergy, and the Communists only knew how to take land from the powerful and give it to the peasant majority. In this case, however, that was a great offence, as the Buddhist population regarded the abuse of its monks and nuns as especially heinous. The Dalai Lama was eventually forced to leave Tibet, and China began the policy of sending faithful Party members and families to Tibet in order to attempt to sinicize the region. No one told the Chinese populace the reality of the situation- the Tibetans could not be liberated, because they did not view themselves are being in captivity, rather the invasion and dominance of Tibet became the real captivity of the Tibetan nation. In response to recent news articles about the unrest in Tibet, internet comment boards have been flooded by Chinese dissenters, once again regurgitating the Party line that Tibet has always been a part of China, should not be separated, and the West should stay out of Chinese affairs. This is a direct representation of the force of nationalism in among the Han Chinese. The sheer number of people who hold these beliefs is truly a force to be reckoned with, and the total control the government holds over these people is fearful to behold. After a somewhat heated disagreement with one of my co-workers in Shanghai over the sovereignty of Taiwan (I am fiercely in Taiwan's corner on this one), he declared to me that maintaining the unity of the motherland (ie, keeping Taiwan and Tibet in check) was a cause to which he was willing to give his life. This is not a fringe idea held by one person in China, but is most likely the opinion of the majority of Han ethnicity. Foreign influence will merely galvanize this opinion in the hearts of the Chinese people, who see the West and its values as having held the great Chinese civilization in captivity through colonialism. The irony of the situation, however, is that the colonial spirit of the 1700-1800's that permeated Europe and the United States is now firmly entrenched in Chinese society, propelling the Manifest Destiny of the Chinese- mainly that all areas that were at one point or another considered to be a part of the Qing empire are to be considered part of modern China. My question- what will this mean for Mongolia?

Secondly, the forces of nationalism also happen to be working towards the devolution of China proper. Despite fervent attempts by the PRC to sinicize regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, these policies have proved to be failures. Xinjiang is an area in the Northwestern part of China where the Han majority is a minority. Present here are groups of Uighurs and other ethnic minorities, who for the most part, believe in Islam.

Just recently, there was an attempt in by passengers in Urumqi, the provincial capital of Xinjiang, to crash a domestic flight. This act, denounced as terrorism by the Chinese government, is just one of many attempts of Xinjiang separatists to gain freedom from Chinese rule.

These separatists are also attempting to form a country called Eastern Turkmenistan, using this flag as their banner. As a result, it is illegal to display this flag anywhere in China.

The same goes for the flag of Tibetan separatists, currently used by the Tibetan provisional government in Dharamsala, India, headed by the Dalai Lama.

The recent protests in Tibet and around the world are reminiscent of those in 1989, which met with a dramatic government crackdown in Tibet, where some were killed, and many were imprisoned. The fear is the result of these protests will be the same. The Dalai Lama has protested for some time about what has been happening in Tibet, accurately labeling it cultural genocide. Many monks have been involved this time, with activity centered in Lhasa and around monasteries. Some of these protests have become violent, despite the frequent calls of the Dalai Lama to maintain the practice of non-violent protest. The result is yet to be known.

Lastly, within a week, Taiwan will be holding its presidential election, in which the future of Taiwanese-mainland relations will be determined.

The question that remains to be answered, however, is how many residents of Taiwan view themselves as ethnic Han people, and how many view themselves to be Taiwanese. This, rather than the party of the elected president, will determine the future of Taiwan's relations with China.

In the perfect storm theory, there would be simultaneous and coordinated movements within Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan, creating a situation so spread out that the PLA would be unable to deal with it. The likely result, however, is that Tibet and Xinjiang will stay firmly in Chinese hands, while Taiwan will continue declining right into the open hand of Beijing. But hey, a boy can dream, can't he?